Economic research: 4 questions for '24

Last year saw inflation moderate and economic conditions remain resilient. Hopes for a ‘soft landing’ are high, yet so too is uncertainty around the outlook for the economy.

Given a lack of clarity around the outlook, in this piece, I try to shed some light on four of the key questions for 2024.

  1. What has driven the Australian economy’s rebalancing and what could in 2024?
  2. What would it take for inflation to get back to the middle of the RBA’s inflation target band by the end of 2025?
  3. What is the likelihood of a US recession this year?
  4. What are the main economic and market risks (upside and downside) for 2024?

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